Ryanair CFO warns weaker airlines could fail in coming months

Ryanair Group CFO Neil Sorahan warned on July 20, 2026, that weaker European airlines could fail over the coming winter months due to high jet fuel prices.

Takeaway	Detail
Check an airline’s fuel hedge percentage before booking	Airlines that hedged less than 50% of fuel for winter 2026/2027 are most exposed to spot-price spikes; Ryanair’s CFO cited its own hedging as the buffer that weaker rivals lack.
Book with a credit card offering chargeback or Section 75 protection	This gives you a direct route to recover funds if the carrier fails before departure—debit cards and bank transfers offer no such safety net.
Transfer loyalty miles out of at-risk programs to hotel partners now	If a program collapses, miles can become worthless; moving them to a hotel chain or booking award tickets with flexible cancellation preserves value.
Structure multi-city trips on separate tickets per segment	If one carrier fails, only that leg is lost—a single booking tying all flights to a weak airline risks the entire itinerary.
Set Google Flights price alerts and schedule-change notifications on booked tickets	Sudden mass cancellations or erratic schedule changes are early operational distress signals that precede a failure announcement.
Monitor quarterly earnings for cash runway and debt maturity dates	Airlines with less than six months of cash runway or large debt payments due in late 2026 are the ones Sorahan’s warning targets.
EU261 refund rights are nearly unenforceable after an airline enters insolvency	The regulation technically requires rerouting or refund, but in practice, insolvency proceedings freeze payouts—chargeback is the real recovery path.

Item	Rule / threshold
Metric	Threshold or Rule
Fuel hedge percentage	Below 50% for winter 2026/2027 = high risk; Ryanair hedged most of its summer 2026 fuel.
Cash runway	Less than 6 months of operating cash = critical warning sign.
Debt maturity	Large bond or loan payment due Q4 2026 or Q1 2027 without refinancing = elevated failure risk.
Chargeback filing window	Typically 120 days from transaction date (US) or 120 days from service date (EU); file immediately after cancellation notice. This window is critical — miss it and your only recourse is the insolvency process.
Mile transfer trigger	Transfer miles out of an at-risk program as soon as you see two consecutive quarterly losses or a debt downgrade.

Ryanair Group CFO Neil Sorahan warned on July 20, 2026, that weaker European airlines could fail over the coming winter months due to high jet fuel prices. His statement, backed by CEO Michael O’Leary’s prediction that two or three carriers could enter bankruptcy by late 2026, signals a practical threat for anyone holding tickets on financially exposed airlines.

This guide shows you how to identify which carriers are most at risk using public financial data, protect your money and miles before a collapse, and recover your trip if a failure happens mid-itinerary. You will learn why the common belief that EU261 guarantees a refund is dangerously wrong, and what concrete steps to take now.

Which Airlines Are Most at Risk This Winter

Ryanair Group CFO Neil Sorahan warned that weaker European airlines could fail this winter, with Wizz Air among the carriers analysts consider most exposed, and the reason is a single number visible in any airline’s quarterly filing: fuel hedging coverage. Wizz Air hedged a smaller portion of its summer 2026 fuel requirements, while Ryanair locked in most of its exposure. The same metric applies to any carrier you’re booked on this winter.

To identify which airlines are most at risk, pull the last two quarterly earnings reports and look for two numbers: fuel hedging percentage and cash runway (months of operating cash on hand). A carrier with low hedging and a short cash runway is in the danger zone. Spirit Airlines filed for Chapter 11 in November 2025 with pre-filing signs that included mass schedule changes, delayed pilot pay, and fleet groundings. Industry observers have noted parallels between Spirit's situation and the pressures facing some European carriers, meaning you should watch for the same pattern in Europe. Wizz Air, easyJet, and Norwegian are the names practitioners are tracking, but the real red flag is any airline that hasn’t reported earnings since Q1 2026 — transparency drops before insolvency.

The free tier of CAPA – Centre for Aviation publishes liquidity ratios for European LCCs, updated quarterly. If you see a carrier’s cash runway drop below three months in the CAPA tracker, treat any non-refundable booking on that airline as a gamble. The same logic applies to loyalty programs: if the airline is at risk, its miles are at risk.

One caveat: fuel hedging data is usually published 60–90 days after the quarter ends. The most recent reliable filings for most European LCCs cover Q2 2026, released in late July or early August. If you’re booking for October half-term and the airline’s Q2 report is still missing, that absence is itself a warning. Set a calendar reminder for the airline’s next earnings date and check the CAPA tracker the same day. If the numbers look worse than the prior quarter, consider rebooking on a carrier with a stronger hedge profile — even if it costs slightly more upfront.

How to Protect Your Money Before Booking

The single most effective lever you have is not travel insurance — it is booking every flight with a credit card that offers Section 75 protection (UK) or chargeback rights (US/EU). Chargeback rights in the US and EU operate on a different legal basis but achieve the same practical result: the card network pulls the funds back from the merchant’s bank. Both routes bypass the refund queue that can take years to pay out cents on the pound.

Debit cards, PayPal “Friends and Family,” and bank transfers offer no statutory protection in most European jurisdictions. If you pay for a €200 Wizz Air flight from London Luton to Budapest with a Visa debit card and Wizz collapses, you are an unsecured creditor. The same transaction on a Visa credit card triggers chargeback rights for up to 120 days from the transaction date — not the flight date. That distinction matters because the 120-day clock starts ticking the moment you pay, not when the airline cancels. If you booked in June for a November flight and the airline fails in October, you still have roughly 30 days to file. Miss that window and your only recourse is the insolvency process.

Third-party booking sites like Expedia, Kiwi, and eDreams complicate the picture. They often sell “flight disruption protection” as a paid add-on, but the fine print in many policies explicitly excludes airline insolvency. Practitioners on FlyerTalk recommend reading the policy’s “exclusions” section before adding it to cart. A better approach is to book directly with the airline using a credit card that offers chargeback rights, then set a calendar reminder for 90 days before departure to re-check the carrier’s financial health using the CAPA liquidity tracker mentioned earlier. If the airline’s cash runway has dropped below three months, cancel while you still have refund rights — many card issuers require chargeback filing within 120 days of purchase, which may already be tight by that point.

One edge case worth knowing: if you book a flight that departs more than 120 days after purchase, the chargeback window can expire before the flight date. The fix is to book closer to departure or use a card that offers purchase protection with a longer claim period. American Express typically allows up to 120 days from the transaction date, but some Visa Signature cards extend to 180 days — check your card's benefits guide. American Express typically allows up to 120 days from the transaction date, but some Visa Signature cards extend to 180 days — check your card’s benefits guide. The concrete action today is to pull the card you used for your winter bookings, look up its chargeback window in the cardholder agreement, and set a calendar reminder for 30 days before that window closes. If the airline’s financials look shaky at that checkpoint, cancel and rebook on a carrier with a stronger hedge profile — even if the new fare costs more upfront.

For a weekend trip departing Thursday, October 15, and returning Sunday, October 18, 2026, Ryanair typically offers fares around €25–€40 one-way when booked 6–8 weeks out, while a weaker competitor on the same route might charge €60–€90 for a similar schedule. By booking Ryanair now—before the winter shakeout reduces capacity and likely pushes up fares—you can save roughly €40–€60 round-trip per person. Act today: search Ryanair’s site for those October dates and lock in the fare before the carrier’s hedged fuel position lets it hold prices flat while rivals may disappear.

Protect Your Miles and Points Before a Program Collapses

If you hold miles in a program tied to a financially weak carrier, the single most effective move is to convert them into a hotel currency or a flexible points system before any filing is announced. Most airline loyalty programs are legally separate entities from the operating carrier, but that separation offers no practical protection in a liquidation. When Air Berlin collapsed in 2017, its topbonus program was frozen for months; members could not redeem or transfer miles while administrators decided whether to sell the program. Many miles simply expired worthless. The same dynamic played out with Flybe's rewards program in 2020, according to industry reports. The legal structure does not guarantee your balance survives.

Log into your account today and check the “transfer partners” page. If the program allows transfers to Marriott Bonvoy, Radisson Rewards, or another hotel chain, move the miles immediately. Hotel points are generally safer because hotel companies rarely depend on a single airline’s survival. Once the miles land in a hotel account, you can often transfer them back to a financially sound airline partner — for example, Marriott Bonvoy transfers to United MileagePlus, and United is far less likely to fail than a small European carrier. This workflow is well documented on FlyerTalk threads covering the 2024–2026 wave of airline restructurings. Practitioners report that the entire transfer process takes under 24 hours for most programs, but some hotel transfers can take up to a week, so do not delay.

For award tickets already booked on an at-risk carrier, call the loyalty desk and ask to “reissue as a partner award.” If the program belongs to Star Alliance, oneworld, or SkyTeam, the agent can sometimes rebook you on a partner airline using the same miles, shifting the operating carrier to a safer option. This is not guaranteed — the agent must find award availability on the partner — but it is a legitimate request that bypasses the normal refund queue. Do not redeem miles for future travel on a carrier you suspect is weak. Instead, use miles for immediate travel within the next 30 days, or convert them to cash-equivalent gift cards if the program allows that option. Some programs, like Wizz Discount Club, offer only limited flexibility; in those cases, the best move is to book a short-haul flight you actually plan to take within the next few weeks, rather than leaving the balance sitting.

One common mistake is assuming that miles held in a program owned by a larger parent company are automatically safe. That is not true. The loyalty program can be sold separately from the airline, but until a buyer appears, miles are frozen. The concrete action today is to pull up your loyalty account, identify any balance in a program tied to a carrier with weak financials — check the CAPA liquidity tracker or simply look for carriers that have not hedged fuel costs — and initiate a transfer to a hotel partner like Marriott Bonvoy or Radisson Rewards before the end of the week. Do not wait for a news headline. By the time you read about a filing, the transfer window may already be closed.

What to Do If Your Airline Fails Mid-Trip

If your airline ceases operations while you are abroad, your first move is to book a new ticket on a different carrier using your own funds, then file for reimbursement via your credit card’s travel insurance or a chargeback. Do not wait at the airport for a rebooking desk that will not exist. Under EU Regulation EC 261/2004, the failed carrier is technically obligated to reroute you, but insolvency means no staff, no planes, and no customer service. Practitioners report that passengers who waited for airline assistance during the 2019 Thomas Cook collapse spent an average of three days stranded before booking their own tickets.

Use Google Flights to find the cheapest same-day alternative; filter by nonstop and sort by price. For a concrete example, if Wizz Air cancels your Budapest–London flight, check Ryanair or easyJet for the same route. The key is to book immediately — prices on remaining seats rise sharply once news of the failure breaks. Keep every receipt: new flight tickets, hotel nights, meals. You will need them for the chargeback or insurance claim, and the window to submit is typically 30 to 90 days from the date of the incident.

If you have travel insurance, call the emergency number immediately. Many policies cover airline insolvency as a named peril, but only if you bought the policy before the airline’s financial distress was public knowledge. Policies purchased after the CFO's warning on July 20, 2026, may exclude this coverage. Check your policy's insolvency clause before relying on it.erage. Check your policy wording for the phrase “scheduled airline failure” or “insolvency of carrier.” If your policy includes it, the insurer may reimburse your new ticket and any necessary accommodation without requiring a chargeback.

One common mistake is assuming that booking through a travel agent or online travel agency protects you. It does not. The agency is not obligated to rebook you on another carrier; they will process a refund from the failed airline, which can take months or never arrive. The same applies to package holidays covered by ATOL protection in the UK — that scheme covers repatriation, not rebooking on a different airline for the remainder of your trip. If you are mid-itinerary, you are on your own for the outbound or connecting segment.

The concrete action today is to open your upcoming bookings and identify which flights are on carriers with weak financials — look for airlines that have not hedged fuel costs or that have reported consecutive quarterly losses. For each at-risk booking, screenshot the itinerary and save the airline’s customer service number. Then check your credit card’s travel insurance benefits: most premium cards (Chase Sapphire Reserve, Amex Platinum, Capital One Venture X) include trip interruption coverage that applies to airline insolvency. If your card offers this, you can book a replacement flight and file a claim within 60 days. Do not wait for the collapse to happen — prepare the claim paperwork now.

Why EU261 Won’t Save You (Myth-Busting Section)

The most dangerous travel myth circulating right now is that EU Regulation 261/2004 will save you if your airline goes bankrupt. It will not. That regulation only applies to airlines that are still operating and have assets to pay compensation. A carrier that has ceased trading has no staff, no planes, and no cash to process your claim. You become an unsecured creditor in a liquidation queue, and passenger refunds are paid last — often receiving zero.

The 2019 Thomas Cook collapse is the textbook case. Thousands filed EU261 claims for compensation and rerouting. The liquidator paid nothing to ticket holders. The only reason most passengers got home was that the UK government organized repatriation flights — a political decision, not a legal right. No European government has a standing obligation to do that for every failed airline.

Your only enforceable EU261 right in a failure scenario is a refund for the unused portion of your ticket. But that refund comes from the airline’s remaining assets, and you file it alongside every other creditor. In practice, practitioners report that refunds from liquidated carriers arrive months late or never. The regulation’s rerouting obligation is functionally dead the moment the airline stops flying — there is no one to enforce it against.

Your real protection comes from three sources, in order of reliability. First, a credit card chargeback under Section 75 (UK) or the Fair Credit Billing Act (US). This bypasses the liquidation queue entirely because the card issuer is jointly liable for the service not delivered. Second, travel insurance that explicitly names “scheduled airline failure” or “insolvency of carrier” as a covered peril. Third, booking with carriers that have strong balance sheets — Ryanair, IAG group airlines, and Lufthansa Group are examples of operators that can absorb fuel price shocks without collapsing.

Check the policy wording for the exact phrase “scheduled airline failure” — generic “trip cancellation” clauses often exclude insolvency. The concrete action today is to open your current insurance documents and confirm that phrase appears. If it does not, buy a policy that includes it before you book your next flight on any carrier that has not hedged fuel costs or has reported consecutive quarterly losses.

How to Monitor Your Booked Flights for Early Warning Signs

The most reliable early warning sign is not a news headline — it is a sudden, unexplained price drop on your own booked flight. Set a Google Flights price alert for your exact itinerary. If a €200 ticket you bought three months ago suddenly appears at €50 for the same seats, the airline is dumping inventory to raise cash fast. That behavior precedes filings by days or weeks, not months. Practitioners on FlyerTalk have documented this pattern before multiple European carrier collapses: the fare drops, then the schedule starts slipping, then the airline stops flying.

Enable every push notification the airline’s app offers for schedule changes. A single 10-minute delay is routine. Three or four “minor time adjustments” on the same route within a week signal crew scheduling breakdowns caused by financial strain — pilots leaving, maintenance deferred, or fuel suppliers demanding cash upfront. The app notifications are faster than any news feed. If you see a pattern of small delays accumulating, that is the operational equivalent of a check-engine light.

Cross-reference any schedule change against the CAPA liquidity tracker. If your flight has been delayed three times in two weeks and the airline’s cash runway just dropped below three months, you have a compound warning. At that point, call the airline and request a voluntary rebooking to an earlier date on the same route. Many carriers will accommodate this if you cite “schedule instability” — they prefer to move you now rather than deal with a no-show later. If the agent refuses, ask to be placed on a same-day standby for an earlier flight. That gets you out before the collapse, not after.

One edge case: if you booked through a third-party site, the airline’s app may not show your booking. In that case, set a Google Flights alert for the route and date, and check the airline’s own website for schedule changes using your booking reference. Do not rely on the third-party site to notify you — they have no incentive to alert you to problems before the flight operates. The concrete action today is to open every upcoming booking, set a Google Flights price alert, enable app notifications, and add the CAPA tracker to your bookmarks bar. Check all three once a week until departure. If any one of them flashes red, move to the rebooking steps in the previous sections.

How to Structure Itineraries to Minimize Exposure

The simplest structural defense is to avoid booking the last flight of the day on a financially weak carrier. If that flight is cancelled due to insolvency, there are no later departures to rebook onto, and you are stranded overnight. Book the first morning departure instead — if the airline fails overnight, you have the entire day to find an alternative on a stronger carrier. This rule applies regardless of destination. For a concrete example, if you are flying Wizz Air from London Luton to Warsaw, book the 06:00 departure, not the 21:00 departure. The morning flight gives you a 12-hour buffer to rebook on Ryanair or LOT Polish Airlines if Wizz stops flying.

Second, split your itinerary into separate tickets for each leg rather than booking a single connecting ticket on one carrier. If you book London–Budapest–Bucharest on a single Wizz Air ticket and Wizz fails in Budapest, you are stuck. If you book London–Budapest on Wizz and Budapest–Bucharest on Ryanair as separate tickets, only the first leg is at risk. The second leg is unaffected because it is a separate contract. The trade-off is that you lose through-checked baggage and rebooking protection, but in a failure scenario, that protection is worthless anyway — as established in the EU261 myth-busting section, the failed carrier will not rebook you.

Third, build a “rescue carrier” into your itinerary. If you are flying to a destination served by both a weak LCC and a strong flag carrier, book the weak LCC outbound and the strong carrier for the return. The return flight is more critical — if you are stranded at your destination, you need a reliable way home. For example, if you are flying from London to Milan, book Wizz Air outbound and ITA Airways return. ITA is part of the Lufthansa Group, which has a strong balance sheet and fuel hedging. If Wizz fails while you are in Milan, you still have a confirmed ITA flight home. You can then file a chargeback for the Wizz outbound leg.

Fourth, use the “24-hour rule” to your advantage. US DOT regulations require airlines to offer a full refund within 24 hours of booking for flights to, from, or within the US. Many European carriers voluntarily extend this to all bookings. Book your flight, then immediately set a calendar reminder for 23 hours later. During that window, check the airline’s Q2 2026 earnings report and the CAPA liquidity tracker. If the financials look worse than expected, cancel within the 24-hour window for a full refund. This gives you a free option to assess the carrier’s health before committing cash. The concrete action today is to identify any winter booking you made more than 24 hours ago — those are locked in. For any new booking, use the 24-hour window as a financial health checkpoint.

Finally, consider booking refundable fares on weak carriers. Most LCCs offer a “flexible” or “premium” fare tier that allows free cancellation for a credit or refund. Run the math: a €200 basic fare on Wizz Air versus a €300 flexible fare. If Wizz fails, you lose €200 on the basic fare. The flexible fare costs €100 more but gives you a refund path. The breakeven is a 50% failure probability — if you judge the risk higher than that, the flexible fare is the rational choice. Given the CFO’s warning and the fuel hedging gap, many practitioners are treating the risk as above 50% for the most exposed carriers this winter.

What to do next

Given the CFO's warnings about potential airline failures this winter, travelers should take proactive steps to protect their bookings and finances. The following actions can help mitigate risk without relying on any single service or platform.

Also worth reading: Ryanair CEO warns two or three European airlines could go bankrupt this winter · Wyndham reports a major surge in traveler demand for the coming months · TSA warns that some airports could close as the government shutdown drags on · Major airline warns cabin crew could be pulled from flights over weight and fitness concerns

Sources: traveltourister, cnbc, businessinsider, inc, fortune