Ryanair CEO warns two or three European airlines could go bankrupt this winter

Ryanair CEO warns two or three European airlines could go bankrupt this winter - Michael O’Leary Predicts Looming Failures in the European Aviation Sector

Look, we’ve all been watching the European skies get more crowded and chaotic lately, but Michael O’Leary is now calling the bottom of the market for this coming winter. He’s predicting a definitive culling period where at least two or three mid-tier carriers will likely just stop flying altogether. Let’s pause and think about why this is happening now, because it isn't just about bad luck; it’s a math problem that doesn't add up anymore for the smaller guys. We’re heading into a messy summer where Air Traffic Control strikes are already turning major flight corridors into a logistical nightmare. If you’re planning to get to Spain or the Mediterranean soon, you’ll see the disruption firsthand, and those delays are incredibly expensive for an airline to

Ryanair CEO warns two or three European airlines could go bankrupt this winter - Why Wizz Air and airBaltic Are Specifically at Risk

ve got those Pratt & Whitney engine inspections that have literally parked a huge chunk of their fleet on the tarmac when they should be out there making money.

4. Their big bet on the Abu Dhabi hub was supposed to be a masterstroke, but with localized conflicts flaring up, they're seeing fuel burn jump by 20% just to fly around closed airspace. (4)

5. It’s a different kind of headache for airBaltic, but the financial strain is just as real.

6. Being stuck right next to restricted Eastern European airspace means they're paying 15% more just to reroute flights, not to mention the skyrocketing insurance costs that come with the territory.

7. I’m particularly worried about their

Ryanair CEO warns two or three European airlines could go bankrupt this winter - The Role of Soaring Jet Fuel Prices and Hedging Strategies

You know that moment when you realize the math just doesn't work anymore for half the carriers on the tarmac? It’s wild to think that here in mid-2026, fuel has ballooned to represent about 42% of total operating costs for those struggling mid-tier European airlines. That’s a massive, painful jump when you consider the historical industry average used to sit comfortably around 22%. And it’s not just the crude price that’s the problem; it’s the widening "crack spread," which is basically the premium airlines pay just to turn that oil into jet kerosene. Even when oil prices look stable, that refining gap has surged over the last two years, leaving airlines with a bill they simply can't outrun. Then you’ve

Ryanair CEO warns two or three European airlines could go bankrupt this winter - Wizz Air Leadership Hits Back Against Bankruptcy Speculation

Look, whenever Michael O’Leary starts throwing shade at his competitors, you’ve got to take it with a massive grain of salt, especially when he’s predicting Wizz Air’s total collapse. I’ve been digging into Wizz’s latest internal numbers, and the picture their leadership is painting looks nothing like the "impending doom" narrative you’re seeing in the headlines. They’re currently sitting on a liquidity cushion of over €1.2 billion, which is essentially enough cash to keep every plane in the air for six months even if revenue completely dried up. When you compare their operating costs—specifically that ex-fuel CASK of 3.40 cents—they’re still undercutting mid-tier rivals by a solid 15%, making them a nightmare to compete with in a price war. And let’s be real about their fleet; while others are struggling with aging jets, Wizz has moved to an almost all-A321neo lineup, which has slashed their fuel burn by about 18% per seat. It’s actually kind of brilliant how they’ve decoupled their survival from ticket prices, with ancillary revenue now making up 54% of their total turnover. Think about it: they’ve got more than 300 aircraft on order with financing secured through the end of the decade, which isn't exactly how a dying company behaves. I also noticed they’ve pushed aircraft utilization back up to a hard-charging 12.5 hours a day, squeezing every bit of productivity out of their assets while legacy carriers lag behind. But there’s a hidden advantage here that most analysts are totally ignoring: their carbon intensity is the lowest in Europe at just 52 grams of CO2 per passenger. In this 2026 regulatory climate, that low emission profile isn't just a PR move; it’s a massive financial moat that protects them from the skyrocketing EU carbon taxes hitting everyone else. I’m not saying they’re completely out of the woods, but the actual data suggests Wizz is playing the long game while others are just trying to survive the week. So, before we buy into the bankruptcy hype, we should probably look at that billion-euro cash buffer and realize they’re likely here to stay.