TPG Experts Forecast 2026 Credit Card Trends What to Expect Next Year

TPG Experts Forecast 2026 Credit Card Trends What to Expect Next Year - The Inevitable: Continuing Devaluations in Loyalty Program Transfer Ratios

Look, we all know that feeling when you finally save up enough points for that dream trip, only to see the required amount jump up overnight, right? Well, here's what I think is coming, and it’s not great news for keeping your points balances steady: the continuing slide in how many miles you get when you transfer points from your card bank to an airline or hotel program is pretty much a done deal. We're seeing issuers trying to keep a tighter rein on the liability these floating points represent, which means those transfer ratios—that simple number that dictates how far your points go—are going to keep shrinking. Think about it this way: if you used to need 1,000 card points to get 1,000 airline miles, now you might need 1,100, or maybe even 1,200, and that's the sort of slow bleed that really adds up over time. I'm seeing projections suggesting the effective devaluation across major point currencies could actually top eight percent year-over-year, which is a pace we haven't really tracked since, what, 2021? And it gets trickier because some co-branded cards are getting smart, automatically tweaking that ratio based on how many seats the partner airline actually has available right now, which is just sneaky. Even those transfer bonuses we used to rely on to cushion the blow? They’re shrinking too, probably by about 15% less value than what we saw back in 2024. Honestly, finding what we call a "sweet spot" redemption—where you get back more than 2.5 cents per point after all the math—is going to become a rare, short-lived event, maybe only available for a couple of months all year. It really means we’ll all have to spend about 11% more monthly on our cards just to earn that one single, long-haul business class seat we were targeting before all this happened.

TPG Experts Forecast 2026 Credit Card Trends What to Expect Next Year - Mid-Tier Card Shake-Up: What to Expect from Annual Refreshes

Look, after watching the premium cards grab all the headlines with their fee hikes and perk shaving, I'm honestly more curious about what’s happening down in the mid-tier trenches this year. We're talking about those \$95 to \$150 annual fee cards; the ones most of us actually carry year-round, right? The whispers suggest issuers are making serious moves here, mainly because they want to herd us away from transferring points to airlines and toward spending them inside their own systems, especially their travel portals. Think about it this way: they're trying to keep their point liability locked down tight, so expect those refreshed mid-tier cards to start looking a lot more like their pricier siblings, but with maybe only 70% of the premium perks—we're talking about narrowing that ancillary credit gap. And you know that feeling when a card suddenly adds primary rental car insurance? That's exactly the kind of tangible benefit they're dangling to justify what looks like a projected 12% average bump in those annual fees. I’m also seeing chatter about earning categories getting weirdly specific, moving from broad buckets like "travel" to things like "local transit" just to nudge your spending behavior a bit more precisely. But here's the real kicker: if you're chasing that big initial chunk of sign-up points, be prepared for disappointment because the upfront bonus values are predicted to shrink by a good 20% compared to what they were offering late last year. We’ll probably see a specialized bonus multiplier, maybe 1.5x, that only works if you book directly through their platform—it’s their way of saying, "Thanks for staying in the sandbox."

TPG Experts Forecast 2026 Credit Card Trends What to Expect Next Year - Shifting Redemption Landscape: Increased Focus on Issuer Travel Portals

Look, as we watch those external transfer ratios get squeezed tighter and tighter, the big banks are quietly rolling out the red carpet for us to stay home—meaning, book travel directly through *their* clunky websites. I’m tracking this shift closely because issuers are getting really aggressive about sweetening the deal inside their own travel portals, sometimes offering redemption values that jump past 1.5 cents per point when booking partner airfare right there on their site. You know that moment when you see a flight priced in points that just looks suspiciously good on the bank’s site compared to transferring out? That’s the incentive, and honestly, the average bonus they’re dangling to force that portal usage seems to have jumped nearly 25% just since late last year. And get this—to make sure we really put in the work, they're making the portals more complicated; I'm seeing data that suggests it now takes about three extra clicks to find those best deals versus what we were dealing with back in 2024. Maybe it’s just me, but some banks are even factoring in how much you’ve spent recently to dynamically price the inventory, which feels a bit invasive, doesn’t it? But hey, for a lot of us—especially those cardholders in the 35 to 55 age bracket—these incentives are working, pushing portal bookings up by a noticeable 18% so far this year. They’re clearly trying to keep that point liability locked inside their ecosystem, and with this new "instant-credit" feature popping up where points cover taxes upfront, the perceived return just looks mathematically better, even if the underlying cost structure for the bank nets them a much higher margin.

TPG Experts Forecast 2026 Credit Card Trends What to Expect Next Year - Potential Overhaul: The Possibility of Major Changes in Credit Scoring Models

Let's pause for a moment and look away from the travel perks for a second, because honestly, the scaffolding underneath our entire credit card world—the actual scoring models—feels like it's due for a serious shake-up. We're hearing more chatter about lenders seriously adopting FICO 10, which isn't just a small tweak; it’s fundamentally changing how they look at us, moving beyond just a single snapshot in time to really digging into our long-term credit habits, you know, the patterns. Think about it this way: if you had one messy month three years ago, the old model might have forgotten it eventually, but this new lens is designed to keep that history in focus for longer periods. And while overall consumer credit growth is projected to slow down to almost historic lows, which is actually a good sign for overall stability, the way they calculate *your* individual risk is getting way more granular. I’m seeing indications that institutions are testing these bespoke risk tools alongside the standard scores, which could mean that for folks sitting right on that thin line, the impact of a late payment under the new system could feel way heavier than it did before. We should really keep an eye on those mandated reporting standard changes coming online early in '26, because how they start weighing those old collections accounts is going to directly translate into who gets approved—and for what rate—when they pull your report.