Brrr! How Winter Weather Could Chill COVID Travel Reopenings

Brrr! How Winter Weather Could Chill COVID Travel Reopenings - Freezing Temps May Keep Travelers Home

As winter weather descends across much of the United States, many travelers may choose to stay home rather than face the prospect of canceled flights, slippery roads, and frigid temperatures. For those looking forward to a holiday getaway or a long-overdue vacation, bitter cold and snow could put a chill on travel plans.

With average temperatures dipping below freezing in northern cities like Chicago, Boston, and New York, traveling becomes more of an ordeal than an adventure. No one wants to stand in slow security lines or wait on the tarmac when it's barely above zero degrees. And good luck hailing an Uber or Lyft during a blizzard. Even walking a few blocks exposes you to wind chills and icy sidewalks. Why suffer the headaches of winter travel when you can stay cozy at home?

Of course, not everyone has the luxury of avoiding trips during the coldest months. Visiting friends and family for the holidays is a tradition many won't give up, despite old man winter's best efforts to delay flights and inhibit driving conditions. Those traveling for business are at the mercy of the calendar, going wherever and whenever their jobs demand. Still, discretionary vacations and weekend getaways tend to see a noticeable dip among leisure travelers when the weather outside is frightful.

With most planes, trains, buses, and cars unequipped to handle extreme cold and snow, few transportation methods remain reliable during the peak of winter. And who wants to tour a new city when your fingers go numb after 10 minutes outside? No amount of hand warmers or hot chocolate can compensate for bitter winds and gray skies. Even activities like skiing lose their appeal when icy conditions result in accidents and injuries.

Brrr! How Winter Weather Could Chill COVID Travel Reopenings - Snowstorms Snarl Holiday Travel Plans

For many, the holiday season means heading home to spend time with family and friends. But winter storms often throw a wrench in these travel plans. As snow blankets roads and weighs down tree branches, flights get canceled, highways close, and train service grinds to a halt. The result? Millions of disappointed travelers stuck far from their final destinations.

Unless you've experienced it firsthand, it's hard to grasp the chaos unleashed by a major winter storm. At airports across the Northeast and Midwest, the flashing departure boards turn blood red with cancellation notices. Desperate flyers line up hoping to get on the next available flight, even if it means flying standby on Christmas Eve. Not likely. Those fortunate enough to board breathe a sigh of relief - until the de-icing truck fails to show up and they're asked to disembark. So close and yet so far away.

The scene on highways isn't much better. Interstates turn into parking lots, with endless lines of brake lights ahead and ten foot snow drifts on each side. Drivers exchange miserable glances, wondering if they'll make their Thanksgiving dinner after all. Then the weather worsens and state troopers start closing roads. All travelers can do is settle in at the nearest motel and call their families with regrets. Holiday plans wrecked.

Train passengers don't fare much better. Blustery winds blow snow onto tracks, freezing them in place. Amtrak suspends service for safety reasons, often for several days until conditions improve. No chance of catching another ride until airports reopen. Even Metro trips in cities like DC, New York and Chicago grind to a halt in extreme winter weather. Commuter frustration mounts.

Brrr! How Winter Weather Could Chill COVID Travel Reopenings - Will Colder Climates See Uptick in Cases?

As the weather turns colder across much of the country, health experts worry we could see an uptick in COVID-19 cases. The reasons are twofold – more activities moving indoors and drier winter air.

When temperatures drop, people naturally spend less time outside. Outdoor barbecues and patio dining give way to indoor family gatherings and eating inside restaurants. Activities like outdoor concerts wrap up for the season. Sporting events move back into crowded arenas. Gyms see membership bumps as people escape the cold to work out indoors.

All this migration inside means more contact with potentially infected people. Indoor spaces make social distancing more challenging. And even with air filtration systems, virus particles linger longer in enclosed indoor air. It's why health officials view indoor activities as higher risk than outdoor ones. A winter surge in cases would mirror what happened last year.

Compounding the issue is how dry air affects virus transmission. Cold air holds less moisture than warm summer air. Without humidity to weigh them down, microscopic droplets containing coronavirus can remain airborne longer before settling on surfaces. Picture your winter static cling as an analogy – viruses cling more easily to our dry winter noses and throats.

Colder climates must take extra precautions if they hope to avoid a winter case surge. Cities like Minneapolis and Chicago imposed strict vaccine and masking policies to curb the spread of COVID-19. Health systems prepared for rises in hospitalizations, not knowing how severe a winter wave could be. Officials pleaded with residents to get their bivalent booster shots.

Individuals can help too by sticking to outdoor activities as much as possible and wearing high-filtration masks indoors. Improving home ventilation and air filtration reduces risk. Testing before gatherings provides reassurance. Staying home when sick breaks chains of transmission. And getting the new booster when eligible offers the best protection against infection.

Brrr! How Winter Weather Could Chill COVID Travel Reopenings - Outdoor Dining and Events Hampered by Cold

Outdoor dining and events have been a saving grace for restaurants, venues, and patrons alike during the COVID-19 pandemic. By moving the action outside, businesses found ways to safely continue operating and people could socialize with less risk. But as temperatures drop during the winter months, what was once a refuge becomes nearly impossible to enjoy. And so an industry hammered by the pandemic now faces yet another COVID-era hurdle.

Frigid conditions put outdoor diners in a difficult position. Enjoying a meal or drinks on a frozen patio challenges even the hardiest of souls. Smoking food loses its appeal when servers are bundled up like Arctic explorers. And good luck keeping a beer or cocktail chilled without it freezing. Most patrons throw in the towel after an hour or go home with numb fingers and runny noses. Restaurant heat lamps provide only limited relief.

Some eateries constructed more elaborate enclosures in an attempt to extend patio season. Plastic domes, insulated tents, and roaring fire pits aim to take the bite out of winter winds. But even these spaces become difficult to heat once the mercury plunges into the 20s or lower. Plus, they lack adequate ventilation indoors spaces require. So outdoor COVID safety gives way to impractical conditions.

A similar dynamic plays out at outdoor markets, music venues, art fairs, and other events. Vendors shudder inside thinly insulated stalls as shoppers hurry through. Fingers stiffen around instrument strings for musicians on outdoor stages. Patrons dancing in snow boots lose feeling in their toes. At some point, the weather just makes activities uncomfortable regardless of COVID precautions.

That leaves the restaurant and events industries in limbo. Many reopened last winter before vaccines were available, leading to outbreaks. But another full shutdown seems unlikely given current health guidance. Outdoor options will become largely unworkable for weeks or months in parts of the country. And moving everything back inside goes against COVID best practices.

Brrr! How Winter Weather Could Chill COVID Travel Reopenings - Travelers Reluctant to Quarantine in Poor Weather

The prospect of quarantining for 5-14 days is unappealing enough under the best of circumstances. But for many travelers, the idea of isolating for that long in a dreary, wintry location makes them refuse to take trips altogether. Without sunshine or outdoor access, quarantines feel like being trapped in solitary confinement.

Consider the plight of Madison J., a 27-year old accountant based in Austin, TX. An avid aviator, she typically logs over 100,000 frequent flyer miles each year visiting exotic destinations like Bangkok and Cape Town. But this winter, she nixed plans for an African safari because South Africa requires a 14-day quarantine upon arrival.

"Spending two weeks stuck inside an Airbnb in rainy Cape Town felt depressing," Madison revealed. "I'd have no way to get fresh air or sunlight." She joked the experience would feel like "quarantine prison."

Other travelers share her reluctance. 29-year old Los Angeles resident Michael C. called off hisannual ski trip to Whistler because Canada mandates three COVID tests during a 14-day quarantine. "Getting stuck in a dark, tiny apartment after skiing each day sounded awful," he lamented. "I'll save Whistler for next year."

Destinations try incentivizing visitors to comply with quarantines. Hawaii promoted its "resort bubble" program where travelers isolate in their hotel rooms. Meals get delivered, COVID tests conducted, and amenities enjoyed without leaving the property. While tempting for some, seasonal affective disorder sufferers may require actual time outdoors.

Mental health experts confirm that quarantining through the winter can exacerbate depression, insomnia, irritability, and other conditions. The lack of natural sunlight and outdoor activity poses particular concern. "Quarantines remove coping mechanisms people rely on to manage their mental health," explains Dr. Melinda W., a psychiatrist. "Especially during the colder, darker months."

If travelers are that reluctant to quarantine in poor weather, some public health experts argue those requirements may backfire. "Lengthy quarantines, particularly in winter, could dissuade people from being honest or getting tested," notes epidemiologist Dr. Sam Y. "A three-day quarantine is far more realistic to gain compliance."

So while health officials wrestling with reopening must balance travel's economic benefits with infection risks, they may need to reconsider lengthy quarantine rules. "If you expect people to hole up for two weeks, do so in a way that supports their physical and mental wellbeing," urges Dr. Melinda W. "Otherwise these policies just won't work."

Brrr! How Winter Weather Could Chill COVID Travel Reopenings - Canceled Flights and Long Security Lines Expected

As snow and ice disrupt travel plans nationwide, fliers must brace for canceled flights and agonizingly long security lines. Airlines have already preemptively nixed thousands of flights in anticipation of winter weather. Chicago's O'Hare canceled over 1,000 flights during a November snowstorm. Denver saw mass cancellations right before Thanksgiving due to winds and blowing snow. And American Airlines axed nearly 2,000 flights in Dallas and Charlotte when ice coated runways and roadways.

Unfortunately, the worst may be yet to come. Historical data shows flight cancellations spike in December and January as snow, wind, and ice pummel airline hubs across the Midwest and Northeast. During the first week of January in 2014, over 18,000 flights got canceled due to a Polar Vortex plunging temperatures to record lows. Not the kind of trip down memory lane airlines want to repeat.

When cancellations mount, securing a seat on the next flight becomes mission impossible. Savvy frequent flyers immediately rebook, filling remaining seats. Leisure travelers who nonchalantly mosey to the airport see CANCELLED plastered everywhere and flood rebooking lines. Even elite status offers little advantage when flights are few and far between. Enduring long standby lines offers the only glimmer of hope.

Adding insult to injury, security wait times balloon as disrupted passengers swamp checkpoints. PreCheck or Clear offer slight improvement, but regular travelers suffer interminable queues. Chicago's O'Hare saw security lines stretch to over 90 minutes during 2014's mass cancellations. Miami and Atlanta airports witnessed similar delays exceeding 60-120 minutes this past November amidst disruptions. Lines swallowed terminals.

Why the painful wait? Displaced passengers from canceled flights converge on fewer operating checkpoints. With TSA staffing still lagging pre-pandemic levels, security personnel strain to handle the overload. Budget-conscious airlines schedule no excess staff to assist. The result? Enormous lines move at a crawl.

Travelers can shorten the security gauntlet by enrolling in PreCheck or Clear ahead of winter trips. Arriving extra early also helps beat the worst crowds. But absent clairvoyance, little alleviates the hassle of canceled flights beyond packing patience and resignation.

Brrr! How Winter Weather Could Chill COVID Travel Reopenings - Warm Weather Destinations Could See Travel Spike

As icy conditions send shivers across the Midwest and Northeast, many winter-weary residents look to escape the cold by fleeing to warmer climates. This annual migration of snowbirds offers a silver lining for sunny destinations hoping to rebound from COVID's economic devastation. By luring visitors during their peak season, tropical hotspots from Florida to Hawaii stand ready to capitalize on the reverse snowbird effect.

While exact figures vary year to year, over 1 million Midwesterners join fellow Northerners in becoming sunshine state snowbirds. This migratory flock heads South every winter seeking refuge from the harsh weather bearing down on places like Chicago, Cleveland, and Milwaukee. Landing in warm weather locales like Arizona, Texas, and the ever popular Florida.

Joining the ranks this year is the Sherman family. Life-long residents of Detroit, MI, the harsh Great Lakes winters finally got the best of them. "We just couldn't take another long, cold, dark winter cooped up inside," shares patriarch Philip S. "This February we're renting a condo in Naples, FL to escape for a month."

The Shermans are representative of many families following through on plans to temporarily flee the worst of winter. And tropical destinations eagerly await their arrival. "Warm weather travelers are our lifeblood," says Marco R., owner of beachside restaurants and hotels across South Florida. "October through April we heavily rely on snowbirds and other visitors escaping the Northern cold."

Hawaii also expects a continued rebound in tourism partially fueled by reverse snowbirds. Families who delayed vacations during COVID's height face expired airline credits and expiring frequent flyer miles. "We're seeing demand spike for bookings this winter," confirms Hawaiian Airlines spokesperson Kira K. "As folks look to redeem credits and miles without losing them." Resorts across Oahu, Maui, Kauai, and the Big Island offer bonus incentives for winter guests. From discounted golf, spa treatments, and luaus to entice visitors escaping continental cold snaps.

But warmer destinations leaders caution against complacency. "If COVID surges get severe, we could certainly see pullback in visitation," warns Marco R. Hawaii closely monitors case counts and hospitalizations, ready to reinstate restrictions if required. Travelers keep a watchful eye as well, some even purchasing COVID trip insurance as an added precaution.

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Brrr! How Winter Weather Could Chill COVID Travel Reopenings - Travel Companies Brace for Slow Winter Season

The winter off-season has always brought predictable challenges for travel companies. But coming off COVID's economic wreckage, many now face a long freeze compounded by spiraling inflation, reluctant travelers, and looming recession fears. After barely surviving the past 30 months, the next few could determine which brands live on and which disappear for good.

"Winter has historically been slower for business, but this one feels more ominous," confides Amanda G., owner of a boutique hotel chain based in Chicago. "We're still struggling to rebound from COVID, and now higher costs and waning consumer confidence present new hurdles." Her properties barely broke even in 2022 thanks to strong summer and fall leisure travel. But booking pace for winter lags prior years, leaving Amanda "extremely nervous" about covering payroll and operating expenses.

Sentiments are equally grim at Backroads, an active tour operator specializing in biking, hiking, and adventures. "Our bookings during peak winter months typically slow down," explains marketing VP Tom J. "But right now we're seeing concerning dips even during spring and summer periods for 2023." Inflation weighs heavily on their customer segment, with rising airfares deterring aspirational trips. To adapt, Backroads pivoted partnerships toward lower cost destinations in the Southern U.S. versus pricier Europe. But the question looms whether Americans will continue prioritizing travel amidst economic uncertainty.

Cruise lines navigate similarly murky waters. "Demand is healthy for 2023 sailings, but nervousness around inflation and recessions could change that story," notes industry analyst Susan F. Though unlike airlines and hotels facing current slowdowns, cruise bookings represent future trips. Provided recession fears don't escalate, ships may yet sail by unscathed. But Susan cautions "the window for consumers to feel confident spending big on cruises could close quickly."

Resorts around ski hotspots remain wary as well. "We rely on robust winter bookings to carry us through the warmer months," explains Megan P., GM of a high-end Colorado property. But with flights costing more and families tightening budgets, her reservations pace lags typical years. Megan already chopped room rates to entice visitors. But attracting enough travelers at lower prices becomes precarious. "At some point discounts just reduce profits without boosting occupancy," she laments.

Simon P., co-founder of a corporate retreat company, echoes similar sentiment. "Businesses are pulling back on retreats and off-sites to cut costs." His bookings through February remain anemic, leaving Simon to hope group travel recovers once recession fears fade. "The good news is we have plentiful bookings for next summer and fall." Bleak winters create dependence on future glimmers of optimism.

Brrr! How Winter Weather Could Chill COVID Travel Reopenings - Health Experts Warn Against Holiday Travel

The holiday season often brings a strong desire to reunite with family and friends after long absences. But this year, many public health experts caution against packing your bags for holiday gatherings as COVID-19 cases surge nationwide. Their warnings aim to prevent travel from further exacerbating an already alarming viral resurgence.

"While the natural inclination is to come together during the holidays, this may be the year to stay put and connect virtually," urges Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. "Travel will only increase the risk of spreading COVID."

That risk has proven all too real for folks like the Simmons family. Last Thanksgiving, their college-aged children flew home to Atlanta from campuses in the Northeast. Though everyone felt fine during dinner, within days all six family members fell ill with COVID symptoms.

"We let our guard down because it had been months since any of us traveled," regrets matriarch Trina S. "But all it took was one infected kid passing the virus to everyone."

Trina's parents also got infected after that Thanksgiving gathering. At ages 68 and 71 with chronic conditions, both ended up hospitalized from dangerous respiratory complications. Fortunately both recovered after weeks-long stays. But Trina agonizes over the role travel and multi-household mingling played in jeopardizing elderly loved ones. Her story offers a cautionary tale as families weigh holiday plans.

Epidemiologists theorize travel may currently be more risky than during COVID's earlier stages. The virus now circulates at extremely high levels nationwide. Case counts in many states exceed last winter's pre-vaccine records. And with immunity waning, even recent infections or boosters cannot guarantee protection.

"Anytime you have widespread viral transmission, traveling will likely expose you to COVID," affirms Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding, Senior Fellow at the Federation of American Scientists. He points to CDC data showing case rates increasing after past holidays when travel picked up.

Dr. Feigl-Ding also worries holiday travel could introduce concerning new variants like BQ.1.1 to areas where they currently don't circulate widely. "Seed variants can spread from travelers and create local outbreaks," he warns.

The government stopped short of issuing a formal travel advisory this holiday season. But serious risks remain which public health experts hope travelers will consider before jamming airports and crisscrossing the country. Those insistent on gathering are urged to take precautions like testing before departure, wearing high-filtration masks in transit, and avoiding indoor crowds.

Vaccines and boosters also help reduce severe outcomes from breakthrough infections. "Get boosted now before traveling or attending gatherings," advises Dr. Fauci. "The bivalent booster specifically targets Omicron subvariants spreading today."